Outcome Analysis Report – Nigeria – March 2017

This report is an update on the Outcome Analysis conducted in October 2016, necessitated by the much available data on production as harvest continued through September to November/December. The consumption year covered by the current analysis is September 2016 – August 2017 for seven livelihood zones, detailed below. (North West Millet & Sesame LZ (MAS), North West Cotton, Groundnuts & mixed Cereals LZ (CGC), Hadejia Valley Mixed Economy LZ (HVM)), North West Sorghum, Cowpeas and Groundnuts LZ (SCG), North West Millet, Cowpeas and Groundnuts LZ (MCG), North Central Maize, Sorghum and Cotton LZ (MSC) and North East Millet, Cowpeas and Sesame LZ (MCS).

Official data monitoring on crop production and prices was used for the definition of the current year problem as given by Agricultural Development Programme across the states. Assumptions for changes in production and prices were made on the Problem Specification (PS) in consensus amongst the workshop participants, based on their field experience where official data does not represent the ideal situation.

The Outcome Analysis (OA) was conducted in Kano by the HEA Working Group from 20th – 23rd February, 2017 for the seven livelihood zones of Northern Nigeria mentioned above. There were participants from Government institutions and NGOs under the technical lead of Save the Children. The analysis aims to understand the changes in households’ access to food and income for September 2016 to August 2017, providing information prior to lean period of the consumption year.